Squadfacts

The performance targets BCL! set for City in 2002/03 were derived from the records of teams winning automatic promotion in the previous five seasons which averaged:

	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Agin	Pts
Average	46	26	12	8	72	43	90

NB - Only once in the last six years would 90pts not have won promotion (and only once has 84pts been good enough, that was Reading in 2001/02).

The impact of Wigan's and Crewe's records had little effect on these averages save to reduce the Goals Against count by two goals to 41, a tribute to the tight defences that underpinned their promotions. By way of setting a target for City in 2003/04 I have upped the ante slightly by changing one of the draws into a win so that the overall total becomes 92 points (a nice round 2 pts/game), thus:

	Played	Won	Drawn	Lost	For	Agin	Pts
Target	46	27	11	8	72	41	92

NB - Only once in the last six years would 90pts not have won promotion (and only once has 84pts been good enough, that was Reading in 2001/02).

In any given league there is a very strong correlation between which team scores first and the outcome of a match - City's records for 2001/02 and 2002/03 certainly fits the theory. If you think that an average team will break the deadlock as often as not then it follows that the better teams will probably take the lead more often than they fall behind, and they will be better at holding onto their lead. By my reckoning a team that is good enough to score first in two-thirds of its matches (30) should also be good enough to emerge from the season with the requisite points for promotion.

So when Danny Wilson quotes the old adage that "goals change games" and bewails the chances we so often miss before the opposition score, I make him spot on. That's why BCL! places a bigger emphasis on WHEN goals are scored, than simply HOW MANY the team/player scores.

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LAST UPDATE:

17 Nov 2008

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